Matthew Dickenson

Undergraduate intern’s detailed social analysis could provide a potent shield for terrorism

Social science is not the first weapon commonly considered in the war on terror. But Matthew Dickenson sees it as a method of more accurately understanding the cause of terrorist acts and hopes to use its potential to create a strong shield to protect Americans.

“Terrorism, like other forms of conflict such as war, is essentially political violence,” said Dickenson, who is currently entering his senior year at the University of Houston and majoring in political science. “Understanding the common causal mechanisms that terrorism shares with other forms of political, social and economic behavior can help researchers look beyond heavy-handed rhetoric and attempt to understand the factors that guide such horrific actions.”

Dickenson’s interest in researching terrorism stems from direct experience at an early age. While a kindergartener in the suburbs of Oklahoma City, he clearly remembers the sonic boom resulting from the truck bomb that destroyed the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in April 1995—an act of domestic terrorism that killed 168 people.

In addition to more traditional political science subjects at the University of Houston, Dickenson also began in-depth studies into Middle Eastern languages and culture and was soon attracted to unique courses in the use of quantitative analysis in social science.

While conducting research for a project, he discovered the U.S Department of Homeland Security HS-STEM Summer Internship Program, which is administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education. The program provides unique internship opportunities for college students to work on the front lines of national security.

Assigned to work with a research team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Dickenson is putting his skills to use working on a quantitative analysis of leadership transitions within terrorist organizations—research that could have an effect on directing U.S. counterterrorism policies.

“Multivariate linear regression analysis provides a way to understand connections between events, such as the death of a terrorist leader and acts of terrorism, while controlling for outside factors, such as the age of the particular terrorist group involved,” Dickenson said.

“For example, let’s say a particular mid-level terrorist leader is assassinated. Our research shows the country involved in the assassination might expect up to a 140 percent increase in casualties from retaliatory attacks in subsequent months. Certainly, that terrorist leader may deserve to be punished, but one must consider carefully if it is worth the counter attacks incited by the feelings of revenge instilled in an organization quite capable of exacting it.”

After completing his work at Lawrence Livermore, Dickenson will be returning to the University of Houston to complete his undergraduate work before moving on to a political science doctoral program. He hopes to continue his work to better understand terrorist behavior and help develop more effective methods of preventing tragedies, such as the Murrah Building bombing or Sept. 11, 2001.

For now, Dickenson focuses on controlling the one element of terrorism we can most easily affect: fear. “When truck drivers in Kansas and housewives in San Jose see the threat of terrorism as ‘reasonable fear,’ something is wrong—and it’s not the terrorists. The most cost-effective means of controlling terrorism is not to fight them on the battlefield, but by denying fear the opportunity to control our lives.”

“Protecting the American people may well mean using violence on our enemies,” Dickenson said. “But, it also requires a measure of courage from each of us.”